Issue: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated impacts on global economic activity have unprecedented implications for markets for agricultural commodities and their products, including food. With the changes in global consumer incomes, distribution networks, and the very nature of how people live, at least temporarily, agricultural and food systems have been placed under a new and extreme stress that might have no historical analog.
Objective: The Cross-Border Threat Screening and Supply Chain Defense (CBTS) Center of Excellence in partnership with the University of Missouri – Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, is examining COVID-19 disruptions in the major U.S. commodity markets through an analysis of their impact on domestic and international agricultural commodity markets and related goods.
Outcomes: The research is capturing the fundamental supply and demand behaviors, market dynamics such as short-run stock adjustments and biological supply constraints, and the influence of domestic agricultural policies that influence market conditions. The project’s findings play out the impacts of key pandemic shocks and their implications across a wide range of agricultural markets over a ten-year period. These results will provide a clearer picture of the paths commodity markets can be expected to take as they recover from the pandemic.
Value Proposition: This analysis can be used to inform possible policy decisions in response to current events and it will provide valuable insights into the possible costs and consequences of future market disruptions.